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Three investments for these risky times – MoneyWeek

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Then,laterintheday,USjoblessclaimscameinroughlyasexpected。

Andretailsaleswerenttoobad。

Soinvestorsrelaxedagain。

Backcamerisk-onmode。

CommoditiesbouncedandtheUSdollareasedback。

Whatcanyoudoasanordinaryprivateinvestoramidallthischaos?

Wehavesomesuggestions。

Whyinvestorsareafraidoftightermonetarypolicies

Chinascentralbank(ThePeoplesBankofChina)raisedbankreserverequirementsforthefifthtimethisyearyesterday。

Themovecameasasurpriseandknockedthewindoutofcommoditymarkets。

Inflationworriesinvestorsbecausetheythinkitmeansthatcentralbankswillraiseinterestratesortightenmonetarypolicymorevigorously。

Thatllmeanslowergrowth。

Andthatllmeanhardertimesforstockmarkets。

Worsestill,thistighteninginChinacomesastheFederalReserveintheUSisabouttoallowquantitativeeasing(QE)tocometoanend。

Andthatsdefinitelybadnewsforriskassets。

JamieChisholmpointsoutaninterestingstudyinhiscolumnintheFinancialTimesthismorning。

TheBankofTokyo-MitsubishiUFJ(BTMU)hascreatedanindexlookingattheperformanceofvariousassetstoseewhetherinvestorsareinarisk-onorrisk-offmood。

TheindexshowsthatthesecondbatchofQEincreasedinvestorsappetiteforrisk。

However,nowitisslowlyindecline。

LeeHardmanatBTMUsays:WebelievethatourindexispotentiallysignallingthattheprolongedperiodofriskseekingcouldsoonbecomingtoanendcoincidingwiththeendofQE。

ItllbehardfortheFedtolaunchQE3

Sowhatnext?

SomeonewequoteregularlyhereisJeremyGranthamofGMO,becausehehasadecenttrackrecordonthebigcalls。

Upuntilnow,hedbeensuggestingthatinvestorshaduntilearlyOctobertomilkwhattheycouldfromrisk-onassets。

Buthesdecidedthat–givenhowfarthemarkethadalreadycomethisyear–itstimetolightenuponrisk-takingnow。

ThebroadimpactoftheJapaneseearthquakeremainsunknown。

TheupheavalintheMiddleEastcouldyetspringsomenastyeconomicsurprises。

AddthattotheendofQE,andrisinginflationindevelopingcountries,andtheresjusttoomanyrisksoutthere。

Athirdroundofquantitativeeasingwouldveryprobablykeepthespeculativegamegoing。

ButwithoutaQE3,thereseemtobetoomanyunexpected(indeedunexpectable)specialfactorsweighingagainstrisk-takingintheseoverpricedtimes。

Thefactis,theFedmaypullQE3outofahat。

Butitllneedanexcusefirst。

AndasImentionedacoupleofdaysago,QEisnolongeraneasyoptionpolitically。

FederalReservechiefBenBernankecertainlydoesntcommandthesamelevelofadorationthatAlanGreenspanonce(undeservedly)did。

Andlittlewonder。

ThevoterinthestreetreckonsthatQEislittlemorethanahandoutforWallStreet。

Ithasnthelpedhousepricestostabiliseinanyobviousway。

Ithasnthelpedthemgetjobs,orpayrises。

Andithasdrivenupthecostoffoodandfuel。

Whenyouputitlikethat,whywouldanyonewantmoreofthismoney-printingnonsense?

Tryingtopointoutthatthingsmighthavebeenworsewithoutitisnteasyifyouretalkingtosomeonewhohaslosttheirjobandtheirhome。

Worsehow?

mightwellbetheirresponse。

Whattobuynow

SoIsuspectthatforQE3tobeannounced,wedneedtoseeaprettydrasticcollapse。

Andnotincommodities,butinstocks,becausethatsprimarilywhatBernankeseemstocareabout。

Inotherwords,marketswouldhavetofallalotharderandfasterthantheyhavesofarfortheFedtopressthepanicbuttonontheirprinteragain。

AndIdaddafurtherrisk–GalleonGroupco-founderRajRajaratnamsbeingfoundguiltyintherecentinsidertradingcase。

Thatmeansanyoneintheprofessionalinvestmentarena,particularlyintheUS,isprobablygoingtobefeelingalittlebittwitchyandparanoid。

Thatdoesntmakeforabullishtradingenvironment。

Whatshouldinvestorsdonow,inthatcase?

Granthamreckonsyouneedtotakeahard-nosedvalueapproach。

Havesubstantialcashreserves,high-qualitybluechips,andemergingmarketequities(mycolleagueCrisSholtoHeatonsuggestedagoodwaytoplaytheseinarecentMoneyWeekmagazinecoverstory–youcanreadithere:Wheretofindgrowth–andincome–inemergingmarkets。

Interestingly,GMOhasalsoincreaseditsexposuretoJapan,whichmakesyetanothersmartinvestorwholikesJapan(JimRogersisafantoo,asMerrynSomersetWebbrevealsinthelatestissueofMoneyWeek,outtoday)。

Ifyourenotalreadyasubscriber,subscribetoMoneyWeekmagazine。

Ourrecommendedarticlefortoday

Profitfromthehugeriseinthepriceofthisraremetal

Thepriceoftheraremetalantimonyhasalmostdoubledsincelastautumn。

Andtheresnosignofitcomingdown。

Thatsgreatnewsforthefewcompaniesinthistinymarket。

Here,TomBulfordlooksatonesmallcapminerthatcouldstrikeitrich。

MMfooter(onMMarticles)?

Thisarticleistakenfromourfreedailyinvestmentemail,MoneyMorning。

SignuptoMoneyMorninghere。

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